Assessment of Overall Resilience Index of Urban Areas against Earthquake considering Intra- and Interdependencies between Different Sectors

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran

2 MS of Natural Disaster Management, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran

Abstract

Sustainability and resiliency analysis of cities is not completed without considering the whole system of interacting sectors. The purpose of this study is to introduce an algorithm for assessment of overall seismic resiliency increase of urban areas due to the reduction of Intra- and Interdependencies between different sectors and retrofitting infrastructures. The proposed method is versatile, and different dimensions of resiliency, i.e., social, economic, technical, physical, institutional, and security dimensions of resiliency are considered in the study. In this research, the technical dimension, i.e., the functionality of water and power networks are modeled as an example, and some solutions to increase overall resiliency of an urban district against earthquake is investigated. The algorithm is based on the inoperability input-output model, and the interaction between water and power sectors in a metropolitan district is surveyed. Based on the results of a number of Monte Carlo simulations of different dependency scenarios, it is quantitatively shown that the decrease in interdependency has a direct and great effect on the increase in serviceability and overall resiliency indices, but the pattern of this effect is different between various earthquake scenarios. It is concluded that the reduction of interdependency has an increasing effect on the overall resiliency index. Thus, an optimum value for interdependency reduction can be obtained to increase resiliency index using the Pareto principle, and the influence of reducing of interdependency on increasing the resiliency of a region as a whole is investigated. The proposed model may be used in system analysis for other dependent sectors and for different disasters and can also be considered as a helpful measure for decision-makers in sustainability and resiliency enhancement studies.

Keywords

References

Bao-Hua, Y., Li-Li, X. & En-Jie, H. (2004). A comprehensive study method for lifeline system interaction under seismic conditions. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 17(2), 211-221.‏
Caldarice, O., Brunetta, G. & Tollin, N. (2019). The Challenge of Urban Resilience: Operationalization. In Urban Resilience for Risk and Adaptation Governance (pp. 1-6). Springer, Cham.
Campbell, K. W. & Bozorgnia, Y. (2003). Updated near-source ground-motion (attenuation) relations for the horizontal and vertical components of peak ground acceleration and acceleration response spectra. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93(1), 314-331.‏
Chang, S. E., Eguchi, R. T. & Seligson, H. A. (1996). Estimation of the economic impact of multiple lifeline disruption: Memphis light, gas, and water division case study.‏
Davoudi, S., Brooks, E. & Mehmood, A. (2013). Evolutionary resilience and strategies for climate adaptation. Planning Practice and Research, 28(3), 307–322.
Dueñas-Osorio, L. A. (2005). The interdependent response of networked systems to natural hazards and intentional disruptions (Doctoral dissertation, Georgia Institute of Technology).‏
Ezell, B. C., Farr, J. V. & Wiese, I. (2000). Infrastructure risk analysis model. Journal of infrastructure systems, 6(3), 114-117.‏
Ghasemi, R., Omidvar, B. & Behzadfar, M. (2019). Study of the Effectiveness of "Technical-Physical" and "Socio-Economic" Strategies in Improving Urban Resilience against Earthquakes, Geographical Urban Planning Research, Accepted for publication.
Gursesli, O. & Desrochers, A. A. (2003, October). Modeling infrastructure interdependencies using Petri nets. In Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 2003. IEEE International Conference on (Vol. 2, pp. 1506-1512). IEEE.‏
Habitat, U. N. (2016). Habitat III Policy Paper 8— Urban Ecology and Resilience. UN-Habitat.
Haimes, Y. Y. & Jiang, P. (2001). Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 7(1), 1-12.‏
Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J., Crowther, K. & Lian, C. (2005a). Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. II: Case studies. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 80-92.‏
Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J. R., Lian, C. & Crowther, K. G. (2005b). Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. I: Theory and methodology. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 67-79.‏
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4(1), 1–23.
FEMA. (1997). HAZUS Technical manual. National Institute of Building for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington (DC).‏
National Institute of Building Sciences and Federal Emergency Management Agency (NIBS and FEMA). (2003). Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, HAZUS® MH Technical Manual.‏
Hwang, H. H. & Chou, T. (1998). Evaluation of the seismic performance of an electric substation using an event tree/fault tree technique. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 13(2), 117-124.‏
Leontief, W. W. (1951a). Input-output economics. Sci Am, 185(4), 15-21.‏
Leontief, W. W. (1951b). The structure of the American economy, 1919-1939: an empirical application of equilibrium analysis (No. HC106. 3 L3945 1951).‏
Leontief, W. W. (1986). Input-output economics. Oxford University Press on Demand.‏
Lewis, T. G. (2006). Critical infrastructure protection in homeland security: defending a networked nation. John Wiley & Sons.‏
Moselhi, O., Hammad, A., Alkass, S., Assi, C., Debbabi, M. & Haider, M. (2005, June). Vulnerability assessment of civil infrastructure systems: A network approach. In 1st CSCE Specialty Conference on Infrastructure Technologies, Management, and Policy, Toronto, Canada.
Naemi, M. & Omidvar, B. (2013). Calculation of Electric Power Effect on Water Network Case Study: Tehran, District 6. Journal of Emergency Management. 1(2), 17-33. [In Persian]
Normandin, J. M., Therrien, M. C., Pelling, M. & Paterson, S. (2019). The Definition of Urban Resilience: A Transformation Path Towards Collaborative Urban Risk Governance. In Urban Resilience for Risk and Adaptation Governance (pp. 9-25). Springer, Cham.
North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) (2004). Gas/Electricity Interdependencies and Recommendations. Princeton, NJ: North American Electric Reliability Council.
Nozick, L. K., Turnquist, M. A., Jones, D. A., Davis, J. R. & Lawton, C. R. (2004, January). Assessing the performance of interdependent infrastructures and optimizing investments. In System Sciences, 2004. Proceedings of the 37th Annual Hawaii International Conference on (pp. 7-pp). IEEE.‏
Omidvar, B., Malekshah, M. H. & Omidvar, H. (2014). Failure risk assessment of interdependent infrastructures against earthquake, a Petri net approach: case study—power and water distribution networks. Natural hazards, 71(3), 1971-1993.‏
Peerenboom, J. P., Fisher, R. E., Rinaldi, S. M. & Kelly, T. K. (2002). Studying the chain reaction. Electric Perspectives, 27(1), 22-35.‏
Peterson, J. L. (1981). Petri net theory and the modeling of systems. Prentice-hall.
PSEPC (Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness office) (2006). Corrections and Conditional Release Statistical Overview–Annual Report.‏
Rinaldi, S. M., Peerenboom, J. P. & Kelly, T. K. (2001). Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems, 21(6), 11-25.‏
Sharma, V. R. (2019). Perspective on Resilient Cities: Introduction and Overview. In Making Cities Resilient (pp. 1-9). Springer, Cham.
Watts, D. J. & Strogatz, S. H. (1998). Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. nature, 393(6684), 440-442
Zare, M., Ghafory-Ashtiany, M. & Bard, P. Y. (1999). Attenuation law for the strong-motions in Iran. In Proceedings of the third international conference on seismology and earthquake engineering (Vol. 1, pp. 345-354).‏
 
 
Journals of Environmental Education and Sustainable Development
Volume 7, Issue 4
September 2019
Pages 127-144

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics